James Wiseman: Weird Stats, The Eye Test, and “Focusing On Development”

I have never watched a high profile rookie as frequently as I have watched James Wiseman. His inaugural season with the Golden State Warriors has been quite an experience. And while that isn't necessarily unique to Warriors 19 year old big man, Wiseman himself is one of the most unique basketball players I have watched this season.

In a season where rookies came in with a diversity of talent and polish that almost none expected; a season where Lamelo Ball just may be creating a new player archetype; and a season where Wiseman's own teammate -- Stephen Curry -- is mind-bogglingly adding to the uniqueness of his skill set, Wiseman is still by far the most unique player I have watched consistently.

And let me be clear, when I say unique I mean weird. I say unique to be charitable, and honestly it may be the best way to describe Wiseman's off the court persona. It's rare to see a 19 year old who can speak Mandarin. And it may be just as rare to see a 19 year old who can speak on the opening of his career and the potential of it's future so introspectively.

But on the court this kid is weird as hell. His presence alone at the rim is incredibly intimidating, but he rarely makes himself a presence there. He seems capable of vacuuming in any lob thrown within the freakish radius his wingspan can cover, but often lets rebounds slip through his hands. And he has the hand-eye coordination necessary to pull off Giannis level one man highlight fast breaks, but can't catch a basketball zipped his way on the interior.

This weirdness not only shows up on the court, but carries over to the statistical analysis of what he does on it. And it even bleeds into the Warriors as a franchise, where the coaching staff is trying to balance a push for a playoff bid with Wiseman's development, and the front office tries to balance building a future around Wiseman with building a contender that can compete for a title as soon as next season.

Weird Stats

Rookies rarely impact winning. And James Wiseman is no exception. The Warriors are a -3.3 per game is Wiseman's 20 or so minutes of action and have a -5.5 net rating in those minutes. Unlike most rookies, Wiseman wears that negative impact on his face and in his body language. Which might actually be a good thing. Most coaches want a player who knows when they're fucking up. Supposedly, it will make it easier for their errors to be corrected.

But coaches' patience run thin, especially at the highest levels of the sport. Wiseman can be aware he's getting killed by veteran bigs on almost a nightly basis all he wants, it didn't stop him from losing his starting spot, and it won't help him steal minutes away Kevon Looney. And while -- like any coach -- I can appreciate Wiseman understanding where he is failing early on, I worry about his level of discouragement. Consistent failure is hard to cope with. That's why losing teams seem to struggle with chemistry more than a winning team does.

If you look at Wiseman's on court impact numbers with a bit more nuance, even more weirdness comes. Wiseman has looked absolutely awful to me on defense most of the season, and his highest moments typically come at the offensive end. But statistically speaking, the Warriors having been playing great defense when Wiseman is on the court, and have been absolutely putrid offensively.

"Great" Defense

Wiseman has a 107.3 defensive rating on the year, which would be good for second in the league (between the Knicks and the Lakers) as things currently stand. I have a couple theories on why Wiseman still "looks" awful defensively despite this number.

The most obvious reason, is the Warriors are simply a good defense. And Wiseman isn't doing much too help that. Golden State has a 108.6 defensive rating on the season, good for 6th in the NBA and only 1.4 points worse than their defense when Wiseman is on the court. That 1.4 difference is small enough to be negligible, a product of the small sample sizes and lineups. To that point, here is Wiseman's 2-man lineup defensive rating numbers with each of his Warriors teammates he's shared the court with (except for Marquisse Chris, who Wiseman played 2 minutes with):

The only players (besides everyone's favorite backup point guard) who have a significantly better defensive rating with Wiseman than they do in general are guys who have played very little minutes with Wiseman. And if I were to venture a guess, the majority of these minutes probably happened in garbage time. For everybody else, Wiseman being on the court has had little to no impact on their defensive numbers.

And that's not necessarily a bad thing. As mentioned earlier, rookies are rarely impact players, and are usually negative impact players. The fact that Wiseman hasn't been that on defense should be considered a positive.

It's not all roses and sunshine, though. In the long term, I'd like Wiseman and Draymond to be a better defensive pairing. The Warriors looked like a renewed team when Looney replaced Wiseman in the starting lineup and saw an even more significant jump in effectiveness when they went small after Looney and Wiseman's injuries. Draymond's value over the years, in part, has come from his ability defend on the perimeter. You could argue this year, that's not quite there anymore. And as a result he is most effective when his teammates are good-to-great perimeter defenders, allowing him to play behind, quarterback the defense, flex his IQ, and provide rim protection. Looney is a much better perimeter defender than Wiseman at this point, and JTA is another step above that.

However, the physical tools are there to become that guy. He's going through the growing pains, and at times it's really tough to watch. But it's not necessarily as bad as it looks sometimes. That in and of itself is a reason to be hopeful.

Putrid Offense

The Warriors have a 101.7 offensive rating when James Wisman is on the court. That's bad. It would be the worst offense in the NBA this season by a margin that rivals the gap between the 2nd worst defense in the NBA and Sacramento's historically bad defense.

One thing I didn't mention in the defense section was how the NBA as a whole is significantly worse on defense than it has been in years and eras prior. That may be why Wiseman "looks" so bad on defense even though the rankings say it's going really well.

But the lack of defense being played in the league today makes Wiseman's poor offensive rating even more of a red flag. It's not really "hard" to score in the NBA nowadays, at least compared to seasons prior. And the Warriors are still struggling mightily to do it when Wiseman is on the floor.

There are some "eye test" reasons I'd like to investigate here, but let's start with some statistics.

To piss off the purists first, Wiseman simply isn't taking enough threes. Wiseman has an effective field goal percentage of 52.1 on twos, and 60 on his threes. But his twos makeup up 88.8 percent of his field goal attempts.

I understand why this is happening. I'd assume the belief among the Warriors coaching staff is that Wiseman is shooting above his level. He's started off hot from three, but his percentage has been slowly declining as time goes on. But he's also not taking them as much. He was taking just over one a game before the injury, and is only taking 0.8 a game since. He's shot the ball awfully on those 0.8 attempts, but I've always been of the mind that it's hard to shoot threes consistently if you're not taking at least a couple of them per game. I'd love to see Wiseman get that attempt number closer to 2 or at least 1.5.

Now if I haven't lost the purists, let me explain why I want Wiseman to take more threes. It's actually really simple. He's really bad at getting effective two point shots. Again I want to use some video to display what I'm getting at here, but let's continue with the numbers, for now.

Of the 220 two point shots Wiseman has taken, 121 have been within five feet of the rim -- with 72.7 percent shooting -- and 99 have been between five and 24 feet -- at 38.4 percent. To use another split, 112 of those shots have been in the restricted area -- with 75 percent shooting -- 56 have been in the paint but outside the restricted area -- with 25 percent shooting (!!!) -- and 52 have been from the mid-range -- with 34.6 percent shooting.

I'd love for Wiseman to dominate at the rim like we all think he is capable of. But the reality is, he doesn't quite have that in his game yet. When he can get those shots at the rim, he's great at them. But he can't get those shots consistently on his own yet. And for the time being, I wonder if he and the team would be more effective if they let him work on the perimeter a bit more.

Eye Test

And since we've made it here. Let's talk about Steve Kerr' offense, and how it might not be getting the most out of Wiseman.

An Old Offense For A New Generation

James Wiseman has the potential to be lethal in the pick and roll. You can argue he is already fairly dangerous.

Steve Kerr's aversion to running actions like the ones above more frequently has vexed Warriors fandom for some time now. But to a certain degree, I get it. Steph is best off ball player in the history of the NBA. You need those away screens and those split actions to fully maximize that aspect of his game.

But Steph is also one of the best pick and roll players of his generation and maybe the most willing "early pass" pick and roll ball handler I have ever watched play.

And I believe James Wiseman would benefit greatly from more of these type of actions. Specifically, I feel this way because I don't think Wiseman works well within the split-cut heavy offense Kerr and Warriors typically employ.

You can tell Wiseman puts work into his post game. But to a certain degree it feels like it has more flash than substance. A big part of this is the evolution of the desired player shot profile and how that affects the shots typically taken from the post. Those turnaround jumpers and deep hook shoots aren't much different than a midrange pullup. If you can be great at them, it's a good shot. But anything less than that isn't going to be the most efficient option.

Players like Joel Embiid and Nikola Jokic overcome this in two ways. First, they're both pretty good at those longer post shots. And there is definitely a chance that Wiseman has the skill level required to develop this type of touch. But more importantly, Jokic and Embiid quite often will put their defender under the rim -- either before or after the post catch -- to create a post shot that feels a lot more like a bunny at the rim than a difficult to nail hook shot or floater.

Wiseman has the size and appears to have the skill level to create more shots like this at the rim. It just seems like he hasn't quite figured how to leverage his body, and how to be patient with those paint touches. You could even argue, these reps are necessary so he can become more comfortable and efficient with these post touches down the line.

But I'd argue Wiseman is actually more of a vertical, rim running, dive man threat than both Jokic and Embiid. And while he definitely has potential to develop a post game closer to the two all star big men, I think his full potential will be better realized as a primary pick and roll threat.

Another part of this is the lack of pick and roll ball handlers on this team that can deliver the ball to Wiseman in his spots. Wiggins can do it occasionally, but it's not his forte. Draymond isn't a threat to score out of that action, which will often make the spacing more difficult to navigate. Wanamaker is one of the worst post entry and pick and roll passing point guards I have ever watched (sidenote: this is at least in part because he can't hit a shot and defenses aren't guarding him). And even Steph in all of his pick and roll greatness, seems hesitant to throw the ball to Wiseman out of pick and roll at times.

I think this is something the Warriors as an organization are aware of. It is most likely a big reason Poole and Mannion were recently called up. They both have a decent chemistry with Wiseman already, and I think they'll get some reps with him in the second half of the season.

No Fouling, No Defense

James Wiseman got into foul trouble early and consistently in his first few games as a starter. They were the type of fouls you expect a young, athletic big to make -- the type of mistakes you hope the guy learns from. And Wiseman has learned from those experiences, but I wonder if it was the wrong lesson.

It's almost as if he's so desperate not to foul, that he's not allowing himself to fully be a presence at the rim. And to be fair, a lot of this is indecision. You can see Wiseman struggling to keep up with the speed at which his help decisions need to be made. Again, this isn't necessarily atypical stuff from a young big man. But the level to which that end of the court isn't clicking for him is a cause for concern.

Also, he's kind of just getting bullied at the rim for quite easy offensive rebounds.

And even when he isn't getting pushed off of his spot, securing the rebound still seems like a bit of a challenge.

The hands thing is concerning on a few levels. It seems reflective of two of Wiseman's biggest problems so far: the game is moving too fast for him and he struggles mightily in traffic. An optimistic supporter sees both of these things as improvable over time. A more pessimistic stance is that the ability to catch isn't one that necessarily improves once you hit the NBA level. Bismack Biyombo -- for instance -- doesn't quite have the stone hands of his youth, but he also isn't really vacuuming in everything in his area nowadays.

The hope instead is that he does adjust to the speed of the game, and with that he'll become more comfortable in traffic. The former can make him a more impactful defender, because -- as I've said a couple times already -- the tools are there. The latter will make him a better rebounder, something the Warriors desperately need from the big man, not only in this season but in the future if they want to reach their full potential defensively.

Focusing On Development

But the bigger questions regarding the potential of these Warriors in the near and distant future, is really which one they're prioritizing, and whether Wiseman fits into a fully realized near one. If Wiseman was the person we all assumed he might be -- a rim protecting, vertically threatening dive man, a suped up Javale McGee if you will -- the fit might make more sense. But the first half of this season has showed us Wiseman isn't quite that. There's more nuance to his game. He may even feel more like an athletic Zaza Pachulia in terms of skill set.

But we also probably assumed too much of how Kerr would adjust the offense. Would Wiseman fit more of that Javale role if the Warriors ran more pick and roll? Probably. Does it make more sense for the Warriors to allow Wiseman to grow a more diverse game? There's definitely an argument for it.

But I wonder if they're even doing that at this point. Wiseman has looked more unused than misused over the last few weeks. And I mostly get why. Steve Kerr, at his core, wants to win. And thank God that he does, because the Warriors shouldn't squander what's turning out to be a legendary Steph Curry season.

But I'm not sure where Wiseman fits into all this. The more this season rolls along, the more I wonder about whether this team makes more sense with Wiseman or with Bradley Beal. Yes, Wiseman creates way more long term value for your franchise. But Steph is still good enough to lead a team to a title right in this moment. Draymond isn't the Dray of the past but he's shown us their is still plenty of value to his game. It's a value that maximizes the offense around Steph, and a value that seems to be hampered by sharing the court with Wiseman. Does it just make more sense to roll with Steph, Klay, Beal, and Draymond next year? That's not for me to decide, but it's something I think about more than I would if Wiseman and the Warriors was the match made in heaven we all thought it would be.

And to be clear, this isn't an indictment on Wiseman as much as it's reflecting on this weird position he and the Warriors find themselves in. Drop Wiseman on the Hornets, and he's probably being maximized in a way he won't be this year with Golden State. Put him on a true bottom feeder and he might be averaging twenty and ten.

But alas, he's a member of the Golden State Warriors -- a team with a multitude of successes, but a team that has struggled to develop talent over the last few years. Apparently, that development will be more of a focus for the second half of this season. I'm curious to see how that development goes. And I'm even more curious about whether focusing on development is the right decision.