trashm1ke's NBA Power Rankings: Prelim

The 2021-2022 NBA Season starts tomorrow. Here are my preliminary power rankings. My intention is to update this every week. I doubt I actually stick to that. But for now, here we go:

Now THIS Is Going To Be Fun: The Los Angeles Lakers

The year is 2012. A fairly lopsided (with hindsight) three team trade that would have sent Chris Paul to the Lakers, Pau Gasol to the Rockets, while Lamar Odom, Kevin Martin, Luis Scola, and Goran Dragic landed in New Orleans had been completed that summer.

(I say with hindsight because in this era trading a superstar for a bunch of above average to good vets lined up with the team building approaches of the day. While the CP3 to LA trade that actually happened better reflected where the league was going as far what getting a "good return" on a superstar entailed)

David Stern said, "fuck that." And as much as he and the league would tell you it was because of the lopsided nature of the deal, the reality was more sinister. The deal left the Lakers with enough pieces (Andrew Bynum, specifically) to pull off a Dwight Howard trade as well. Twenty-eight of the "29 owners of the Hornets" at the time weren't letting that fly.

But Mitch Kupcheck -- then Lakers GM -- wouldn't stop his pursuit of acquiring multiple superstars. The looming Dwight Howard trade, that essentially killed the CP3 deal, eventually came to fruition. And while Chris Paul had been relinquished to playing from the other locker room in the Staples Center, the Lakers bounced back by acquiring another all time point guard -- Steve Nash. A superteam was born.

Fast forward to the preseason, where the Lakers dropped their first two games. Nowadays, nobody would have cared and nobody was truly concerned then. The Lakers weren't even fully operational yet, and IT WAS THE FUCKING PRESEASON. Dwight Howard made his debut in their 3rd preseason game that year. He excelled everywhere but the free throw line and managed to foul out (the more things change the more they stay the same...amirite). The Lakers lost again. Then they lost again. And again. Until they had managed the rare only-defeated preseason.

But again, nobody was really that worried. It was the preseason. There was a ton of roster turnover up top. And even scheme wise, implementing the Princeton offense would be a process.

But then the regular season started. And the losses didn't stop. A loss to the Mavericks on opening night. A loss to the Blazers and a rookie Damian Lillard (23 points, +16) followed. And finally a loss to CP himself as Staples went what must have felt like 'full bizarro' at the time. The Lakers were 0-3, the Clippers were 2-0, and the most heralded player to be acquired that summer wore the undefeated team's jersey instead of the purple and gold.

A win finally came in game four, against the Detroit Pistons. The eleven game losing streak finally came to an end. But the damage had been done. One more loss -- this time the Jazz -- followed, and with that Mike Brown was out. He was eventually replaced by Mike D'Antoni (shout out to JB Bickerstaff's pops for going 4-1 in his 5 game stretch as the interim). D'Antoni righted the ship in many ways, but that Lakers team never felt like it recovered. The collection of talent had few precedents. But the talent never meshed in a way that gave 'championship contender' vibes. Dwight was out the door after year (amirite) and the experiment was over. Very little fun was had.

Look. I don't actually think this Lakers team will parallel 2012-2013. Hence, why I have them number one in the West going into the season. But the fit is weird in similar ways, and the 0-6 preseason start -- while on it's own shouldn't cause too much concern -- was full of reasons to be at least slightly nervous about how this thing will mesh.

But Frank Vogel is miles ahead of where Mike Brown was at the time. And that 2012 Lakers squad didn't have a non-Kobe player as good as Anthony Davis (though a healthy Dwight Howard would make for an interesting debate). They should be fine, and honestly think they can find a groove and be a dominant regular season team this year. But if Russell Westbrook does take it down with flames, remember who warned you.

The Contender: The Brooklyn Nets

'The' is the definitive article here. I like the Lakers chances to dominate this regular season, but I have real doubts about how it all works come playoff time. As a result there's only one team I'd consider picking over Milwaukee if they matched up in the playoffs. And that team happens to be missing their third best player.

And...I don't think it matters. Obviously, if Kyrie Irving were in the mix I'd be hard pressed to pick Milwaukee over Brooklyn. But even with his absence, I wouldn't be surprised at all if Brooklyn winds up on top. Besides Kevin Durant and Steph Curry, has there ever been a duo with more offensive firepower than KD and Harden? And while the Curry-KD combo is clearly ahead to me, I think Nash has crafted an offense that balances efficiency and catering to KD's preferences in a way Steve Kerr never got close to.

The defense will always be the concern here. But even then, if Kyrie is out, crafting a solid defense should hypothetically be easier. This roster has continually been developed and improved to support it's stars, helpful pieces have been lining up to play for Brooklyn on the cheap, and as a result this team at times feels perfectly crafted around it's big three. And they're depth means they are also kind of perfectly crafted around their big two.

Reg Dead Redemption: The Utah Jazz

The Utah Jazz cannot not prove anything to us in the regular season. The only way they can prove to us that they can do it in the playoffs is to actually do it the playoffs. That's the pun.

Subs Above: The Philadelphia 76ers

It feels weird to be confident in Philadelphia with everything going on. But Joel Embiid is an MVP candidate any year he's healthy at this point. And while I think Ben Simmons' stock has dropped way too low around the league -- dude is still an all nba defender and can be an all nba player given the year -- Philly just might have the pieces to makeup that value. Simmons is a top five defender in this league, but Joel Embiid is too. And Matisse Thybulle (the Aussie on the squad that got a medal this summer) has the potential to be a revolutionary on ball defender as well -- an Andre Iguodala/Ron Artest type that changes our entire concept of what a on ball defender is capable of.

Tyrese Maxey thrived in his opportunities as the showrunner last year, and a bigger role in year two might be the perfect setting for him to take a leap. And as Ben Simmons star faded in the playoffs last year, Steph Curry's kid brother hit another level offensively. This after a regular season where Seth and Joel developed a great chemistry running two man actions that Embiid previously ran with JJ Redick.

(side note I didn't know how to fit in: I LOVE FURKAN KORKMAZ)

The only thing I really see getting in Philly's way this season, besides the obvious -- Simmons dysfunction, Embiid injury -- is Doc Rivers. And his approach doesn't truly begin to hamper his teams until the playoffs come around. So, I'm optimistic. We'll see how it plays out.

Injuries Suck: The Denver Nuggets

I would have picked the Nuggets to win the West (and probably the title) last year if Jamal Murray doesn't get hurt. I'd pick them to win it again this year if we knew he'd be back early enough for it to matter. But I'm still fairly high on this Nuggets team. Mainly because Nikola Jokic -- like Embiid -- is an MVP candidate any year he's out there at this point. But that's the given. The other reason I'm high on the Nuggets is their newest max -- and potential supermax -- player.

In the 57 games Michael Porter Jr. played last season after returning from having Covid last year (nothing to unpack there...nothing at all) he averaged 19 a game on 54 percent from the field and 44 percent from three. After the all-star break that year, he averaged 22 per game on 56 percent shooting with 46 percent shooting from three. After Murray went down for the year, Porter averaged 24 per game on 55 percent shooting from the field and 48 percent shooting from three.

I have a hard time believing MPJ won't average 25 a game this year. Pairing that with Nikola Jokic on offense will be deadly. Jeff Green is solid pickup, and Aaron Gordon should look even better after a full training camp with the team. I doubt they make much noise come playoff time -- unless Murray can return by the playoffs at close to full health -- but I don't think they have a much worse of a regular season than they did last year.

Not Much On Paper: The Golden State Warriors

IT'S JORDAN POOLE SZN MUTHAFUCKAS!!!

Dallas and Golden State will be interesting teams to follow this year. Neither team fundamentally changed their core -- like their fanbases (and even their players?) were begging them to do. But they made roster changes on the margins that can make huge differences on the court. They both made coaching changes that seem to be breathing fresh air into their approaches to the season. And they both have MVP candidates that have a chance to elevate their teams to elite status, even if the roster doesn't quite reflect that standing. Their baseline is avoiding the play-in, but deep down both teams have greater ambition.

The Knicks...and teams trying to replicate: The Indiana Pacers

A riddle: If you had a Nate you didn't think was great, that was replaced with a Nate that inspired your team to to hate. And the original Nate made another team great, while the new Nate got packed up like a crate. Can a Rick recreate the state where you're great, or has the damage been done and it's just too late?

We'll see.

The West Is Hard: The Minnesota Timberwolves

I am drinking the Wolves kool-aid this year. This decision will almost definitely come back bite me in the ass. I will have no regrets.

But yeah, the West is hard (bold prediction: y'all hyping up the East too much...West still wins the head-to-head this season, watch) so even if it does come together, we're talking lower seeded play in team. But I'm sure every Minny fan is taking that with a smile.

Happy NBA opening day everyone. I'll probably (not) be back next week.